TPP Ratification Unlikely Under Trump, Singapore Unhappy

In the article Singapore disappointed TPP is unlikely to be passed under Donald Trump: PM Lee, the author seeks to examine Singapore’s stance on the TPP given that Donald Trump is now the president elect in the United States.  As I’ve written before, the US is the pivotal player in the TPP deal.  If the US does not ratify the TPP, it is highly unlikely the deal will be ratified in other countries, including Singapore.  Singapore has been a stark supporter of the TPP, and it’s not surprising that with the prospect of the TPP fading, Singapore has voiced public disappointment.

As another indication that the world was watching the US election, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee indicated he was well aware of Donald Trump’s stance on the TPP.  Lee’s exact word were that Trump “had no sympathy for the TPP at all.”  Singapore’s main reason for its pro-TPP stance is that it would to enjoy lower tariff and non-tariff barriers for both goods and services, but Singapore is also a very small player in the grand TPP scheme.  The TPP accounts for 40% of global trade amongst its participating countries.  PM Lee has also noted previously that not ratifying the TPP would make the US lose credibility with countries around the world.

Moving forward, it looks like Singapore’s stance on the TPP is all or nothing.  When PM Lee was asked if the deal could be amended to add new countries like Russia or China, he responded that the deal would be a completely new animal.  He called such a deal a “new exercise,” a strong indication that the deal as it is right now is the only way Singapore would like to see the deal ratified.  As President elect Trump begins to enact his policy, the world will be watching with interest to see how deals such as the TPP created under the Obama administration will be handled.  If Trump does keep any of his campaign promises, it will not be surprising if the TPP is completely scrapped.

 

What countries will be involved if a new TPP style deal is crafted?

Will there be significant global fallout if the TPP is not ratified in the US?

How much consideration should Trump give to smaller countries like Singapore as compared to the larger countries not in the agreement such as Russia and China?

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/singapore-disappointed-tpp-is-unlikely-to-be-passed-under-donald-trump-pm-lee

 

If Trump has His Way, Singapore Will Lose Out if TPP Not Ratified

In the article, How Donald Trump’s views on the TPP could sink Singapore, the author examines a Trump presidency could would affect the TTP as well how the TPP, or lack thereof, will affect other countries in the Pacific, mainly China.  The TPP involves 12 countries that account for approximately 25% of global exports and 40% of world GDP, so the deal is very significant.  Furthermore, the World Bank predicts each participating countries’ GDP will climb by 1.1% by 2030 should the deal come into being.  With the ratification or dissolution of the TPP, Singapore stands to gain much or experience significant losses.

Donald Trump’s recent comments on the TPP and China may have some truth to them.  He believes China will attempt to take advantage of its position as not being part of the TPP and initiate back door trading with the countries involved, including Singapore.  China stands to lose out on $46 billion worth of investments and trade each year if the TPP is ratified.  Interestingly, China already has a free trade deal with Singapore.  That being said, Singapore stands to lose much given the fact that total trade as a percentage of GDP is over 300%.  For comparison, the number is just 28% for the US.  So the TPP not being ratified could seriously hurt Singapore’s economy.

In 2015, Singapore was China’s second favorite investment destination.  China actually has free trade deals with two-thirds of the countries in the TPP agreement.  These previously existing deals insulate China a bit should the TPP be ratified.  Unfortunately, a country like Singapore does not have these deals in place.  It’s not surprising Singapore has very publicly supported the TPP, and no matter which US presidential candidate is elected, Singapore will continue to push for ratification.  If Trump is elected, it will be interesting to see if he completely scraps the TPP as he says he will even in the face of serious objections from countries with high vested interest like Singapore.

 

Do you believe Trump is telling the truth about how he feels about the TPP?

With China not being a part of the TPP, does Trump actually have a valid point?

What will Singapore do if the TPP is not ratified?

http://sbr.com.sg/economy/commentary/how-donald-trumps-views-tpp-could-sink-singapore

Future Uncertain for TTP in Canada

In the article, Ratifying the TPP could be bad for Canada, but not ratifying it would be even worse: memo, the author examines the multiple options around the TTP as well the future of trade in Canada.  As most know, the TTP has been signed by all the countries involved, but it has yet to be ratified.  With growing sentiment against the TTP in the US, Canada, and other countries, it’s not surprising that some experts believe the agreement may never be ratified.

The previous finance minister of Canada, Joe Oliver, warned Canada in an October memo that not participating in the TTP could be disastrous.  In part, Canada needs to be part of the agreement if only for defensive measures.  If Canada were to opt out of the TTP, it would lose its ideal trade positions to the US and Mexico.  The memo noted specifically that these North American supply chains “underpin the [Canadian] economy.  On the positive side, the TTP would open the doors to trade with Asian countries, a position Canada does not hold strongly right now.

On the flip side, the TTP would dilute Canada’s great position within the NAFTA.  There would be significant competition from Asian countries.  Furthermore, the TTP could eliminate Canadian jobs and damage some sectors of the economy.  Interestingly, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has urged Canada to abandon what he described as a “badly flawed” deal.  Suffice to say, the future of the TTP is in doubt.

 

Would the dissolution of the TTP be the best outcome for Canada?

Why hasn’t there been more sentiment in Canada about the TTP’s other provisions aside from trade?

Will Canada’s relations with Asian countries actually become worse if the TTP is not signed?

http://globalnews.ca/news/2627088/ratifying-the-tpp-could-be-bad-for-canada-but-not-ratifying-it-would-be-even-worse-memo/

 

Potato Growers support TPP agreement

An article in Weekly Mailer (November 17, 2015) titled “Potato Growers support TPP agreement” (http://www.minicassia.com/news/article_568ee7aa-8c92-11e5-afc5-efc25b97446a.html) describes the main benefits that the TPP deal represents for the U.S. agricultural industry, especially the potato growers. The National Potato Council has urged the Congress to quickly complete the review of the TPP deal in order to approve it. Currently 20% of the potatoes produced in U.S. are exported. Over the last 10 years the potato exports have grown 56% and were valued at $1.7 billion in 2014. The commercial agreement includes tariff reductions that support the critical growth in exports of this relevant economic sector of the U.S. How will this increase in U.S. exports affect the agricultural industry of foreign countries?

Who wins and loses in 21st century trade agreement

An article in CNBC (November 13, 2015) titled “Who wins and loses in 21st century trade agreement” (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/13/who-wins-and-loses-in-21st-century-trade-agreement.html) describes the controversial TPP agreement that has opened the discussion about the main benefits and trade-offs that this commercial deal represents. Tim Brightbill, who serves as vice chair of the U.S. government administrated Industry Trade Advisory Committee on Services and Finance Industries, mentioned that the tech and telecommunications sectors are beneficiaries of the deal. The TPP text explains agreements that will remove barriers to entry in the global market for technological companies. Another winner in the deal is the U.S. agriculture, considering that the TPP agreement increases access for US products abroad. On the other hand, some analysts foresee problems in terms of currency manipulation as a consequence of the TPP. Will the benefits outweigh the costs of implementing the TPP agreement? Will this advantage for technological companies boost further innovation in the coming years?

 

US corn, grain groups still like Trans-Pacific Partnership

An article in Southeast Farm Press (November 6, 2015) titled “US corn, grain groups still like Trans-Pacific Partnership” (http://southeastfarmpress.com/grains/us-corn-grain-groups-still-trans-pacific-partnership) describes the benefits that the TPP provides to the agricultural industry. The National Corn Growers Association celebrates the commercial agreement, since it will provide farmers and ranchers greater access to the Asia-Pacific region that represents 40% of the world’s economy. The TPP agreement will increase U.S. agricultural exports, which besides increasing farm incomes also generates economic development in rural communities. What other industries will perceive the greatest benefits of the TPP agreement? Which economic sectors will face a downturn due to this commercial deal?

Trans-Pacific Partnership would benefit Texas jobs, exports, study found

A new study from Business Roundtable found that U.S. trade with 11 other countries involved in the U.S. Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations supported 1.2 million jobs in Texas in 2013. Some of the highlights of the report found that

• 54 percent of Texas goods exported globally went to these countries in 2013;

• Texas exports included $140.9 billion worth of goods and $9.4 billion worth of services to TPP countries that are existing U.S. free trade agreement partners — Australia, Canada, Chile, Mexico, Peru and Singapore — in 2013, accounting for roughly 51 percent of the state’s goods exports and roughly 18 percent of its services exports globally.

• The TPP will open new markets for Texas with five countries that are not currently free trade agreement partners — Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand and Vietnam. Texas exported $7.6 billion in goods and $3.9 billion in services in 2013 to these countries.

Full report can be found here: http://businessroundtable.org/sites/default/files/state-data-tpp/BRT_TPP_TX_2013.pdf