In the article Not joining TPP will cost Canada billions in economic growth: report, the author investigates how Canada is examining its involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP), and how the release of a new study could say its opinion. Canadians have been back and forth in deciding if signing on to the TTP is the right move for the country. It now appears that now signing on to the TTP, baring major countries, like the US, not signing on, is the right move because Canada could lose significant future trade revenue by not being part of the TTP.
Recently, one of Canada’s own top economists, Andre Downs, published a paper advising Canada’s ruling part, the Trudeau Liberals, that failure to sign onto the TTP would cost the country upwards of 5.3 billion dollars in lost trade revenue. On the other hand, signing on to the agreement would generate long-term gains for the Canadian economy, expanding output by $4.3-billion. With such large numbers in play, it’s obvious that a decision on the TTP is very important to Canada’s future economy.
The curveball in Canada’s decision is the ratification of the TTP by the other countries who could be involved, primarily the US. All of Canada’s recent estimates assume the US will ratify the TTP. It is interesting to consider that both US presidential candidates are currently publicly against the TTP. Furthermore, there is protectionist sentiment in Canada, and there are voices that believe any benefit of the agreement will be nullified by its increased cost to Canadians. These extra costs include billions of dollars in compensation for farmers as well as bigger price tags for copyrighted goods and patented medicines. With all of this information in mind, it will be interesting how the future of trade unfolds for Canada based on the participation and ratification of the TTP.
Do you believe Canada will end up agreeing to the TPP?
If the US backs out of the TTP, will any other countries agree to the TPP?
Do you believe that Canada’s fears of lost trade revenue or justified or overblown?