In the article, How Donald Trump’s views on the TPP could sink Singapore, the author examines a Trump presidency could would affect the TTP as well how the TPP, or lack thereof, will affect other countries in the Pacific, mainly China. The TPP involves 12 countries that account for approximately 25% of global exports and 40% of world GDP, so the deal is very significant. Furthermore, the World Bank predicts each participating countries’ GDP will climb by 1.1% by 2030 should the deal come into being. With the ratification or dissolution of the TPP, Singapore stands to gain much or experience significant losses.
Donald Trump’s recent comments on the TPP and China may have some truth to them. He believes China will attempt to take advantage of its position as not being part of the TPP and initiate back door trading with the countries involved, including Singapore. China stands to lose out on $46 billion worth of investments and trade each year if the TPP is ratified. Interestingly, China already has a free trade deal with Singapore. That being said, Singapore stands to lose much given the fact that total trade as a percentage of GDP is over 300%. For comparison, the number is just 28% for the US. So the TPP not being ratified could seriously hurt Singapore’s economy.
In 2015, Singapore was China’s second favorite investment destination. China actually has free trade deals with two-thirds of the countries in the TPP agreement. These previously existing deals insulate China a bit should the TPP be ratified. Unfortunately, a country like Singapore does not have these deals in place. It’s not surprising Singapore has very publicly supported the TPP, and no matter which US presidential candidate is elected, Singapore will continue to push for ratification. If Trump is elected, it will be interesting to see if he completely scraps the TPP as he says he will even in the face of serious objections from countries with high vested interest like Singapore.
Do you believe Trump is telling the truth about how he feels about the TPP?
With China not being a part of the TPP, does Trump actually have a valid point?
What will Singapore do if the TPP is not ratified?